Excerpt:

There is a new Caucus poll by the American Research Group, that conflict pretty sharply with the recent Research 2000 one. It looks like ARG didn’t do a lot of Iowa polling in 2004, so it is difficult to assess their accuracy. Research 2000 wasn’t exactly stellar, though.

These polls are completely incompatible. Color me skeptical that Clinton is the outside-the-margin-of-error frontrunner.

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