Excerpt:

Yesterday, desmoines at Bleeding Heartland asked how Obama would get 270 electoral votes in the general election.

Kos answers the question…

Iowa, Missouri, Colorado, New Mexico, Arkansas, Virginia, Ohio, and Nevada.

That’s 76 electoral votes, already past the 42 sure-things that Jerome thinks Hillary gets (and really, Florida?). So if nothing else changed from 2004, that would be a 328-210 Obama victory. Beyond that, Obama will be competitive elsewhere. What, does Jerome really think that Latinos will choose McCain over Obama after 10 months of Republican immigrant bashing in the news (which will happen, whether McCain joins in or not), or that women will sit November out?

McCain is hated in Alaska for his position on ANWAR. Obama is also against such drilling, of course, but they expect that out of a Democrat. A Republican who opposes it is a traitor. Alaska would be my sleeper call for 2008. Arizona would be in play. Montana could be in play. Kentucky could be in play. West Virginia could be in play. Florida might be in play. And if nothing else, Obama would help close the margin in a lot of Red states, forcing cash-strapped Republicans to play defense across something closer to a 50-state strategy than the inevitable 18-state strategy we’ll see out of Clinton. Heck, you’re seeing it in this primary, with Obama running in every state, while Clinton brags about sitting out the various states (in an attempt to minimize his victories in places like Louisiana and Washington). She increases the battlefield over 2004, no doubt, but not as wide as Obama does through sheer appeal to independents and even some Republicans.

And yes, running tighter in Red states matters. Not only does it build toward the future (the 50-state strategy, of course), but it certainly matters to Democrats running down the ticket. Go around the country, especially in Red states like I have, and there’s no doubt that just about ever Red state Democrat on the ballot wants Obama headlining this November.

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