Nate Silver at 538 looks at polls that show party identification and finds that Republicans are trending downward.
I knew Republicans weren’t that popular (just take a look at the results from the last election), but check out the drop since late February.
The following chart combines the numbers from these six organizations since August 2008, while adding LOESS regression trendlines.
Per the LOESS curves, the number of Republicans has decreased by about 5 percent since Inauguration Day, from roughly 27 percent to 22 percent. The number of Democrats has also decreased slightly, however, from 38 percent to 35-36 percent. The gains have been made by independents, whose numbers have increased from 30 percent to about 36 percent, such that there are now roughly equal numbers of independents and Democrats.
Nate Silver at 538 looks at polls that show party identification and finds that Republicans are trending downward.
I knew Republicans weren’t that popular (just take a look at the results from the last election), but check out the drop since late February.
The following chart combines the numbers from these six organizations since August 2008, while adding LOESS regression trendlines.
Per the LOESS curves, the number of Republicans has decreased by about 5 percent since Inauguration Day, from roughly 27 percent to 22 percent. The number of Democrats has also decreased slightly, however, from 38 percent to 35-36 percent. The gains have been made by independents, whose numbers have increased from 30 percent to about 36 percent, such that there are now roughly equal numbers of independents and Democrats.
The Environmental Protection Agency today plans to propose regulating greenhouse gas emissions on the grounds that these pollutants pose a danger to the public’s health and welfare, according to several sources who asked not to be identified.
The move, coming almost exactly two years after the Supreme Court ordered the agency to examine whether emissions linked to climate change should be curbed under the Clean Air Act, would mark a major shift in the federal government’s approach to global warming.
This action by the EPA, that occurred during the Bush administration, is probably one of the main reasons Alliant decided to drop plans to build a coal-fired power plant in Marshalltown. Alliant knew the costs of running coal plants would be increasing, but didn’t know how much.
The costs to building new coal plants, already up compared to a couple of years ago thanks to the rising costs of construction materials, will go up also, either because the utilities will need to invest in clean coal technology (which doesn’t exist right now in the market) or to buy carbon credits to make up for the excess pollution. Neither is cheap, and the costs for both will be passed along to rate payers.
Iowa, like Michigan, depends on electricity from coal plants. Now is the time to chart are path for our future energy needs. State leaders need to continue to strongly push renewable energy and need to announce that coal is going to be a declining part of our energy future.
This state can either acknowledge that federal action on this is imminent, or it can continue to pretend that an energy plan crafted last year remains relevant in terms of today’s political and economic environment. The costs of coal are going to go up, and the federal carbon program is aggressive enough, it’s not unimaginable that the costs for coal could pass on their way up the declining cost for renewable energy, made cheaper thanks to improvements in producing technology and the electrical grid.
BUDGET/BONDING: Lawmakers approved a fiscal 2010 general fund budget of $5.78 billion but added $500 million of federal stimulus help for total spending of $6.258 billion beginning July 1. That compared with a revised $6.11 billion for the current year and Gov. Chet Culver’s fiscal 2010 recommendation of $6.46 billion. Majority Democrats also approved Culver’s multi-year infrastructure bonding plan of $715 million and $115 million mostly for University of Iowa flood recovery. The bonds are funded from several sources, most notably about $50 million in annual gambling profits for 20 years. The proceeds are expected to finance hundreds of infrastructure projects and create at least 22,000 jobs.
DISASTER RECOVERY: Lawmakers tackled disaster recovery from many angles, offering tax abatement for property owners who improve damaged properties, authorizing the sale of bonds to finance infrastructure improvements and policy changes to requires cities to participate in programs to lower homeowners’ cost for flood insurance. Included in the relief was $45 million in bonds targeted to Cedar Rapids, the $56 million Jumpstart program to help homeowners and businesses and funding for the Rebuild Iowa Office to coordinate recovery efforts.
TAX POLICY: Despite bipartisan effort to raise the state gas tax, the effort was abandoned after Gov. Culver, who had expressed reservations, finally said he would veto it. Near the end of the session, majority Democrats rolled out a plan to lower taxes for nearly 60 percent of income taxpayers while holding another 14 percent harmless. The plan encountered vigorous opposition because it ended federal deductibility, a provision that allows Iowans to deduct what they pay in federal taxes from their state tax liability. Lawmakers did decide to cap business tax credits at $185 million a year and require more accountability for refund incentives. They also raised court fees by $16.7 million.
CONSUMER PROTECTION: Lawmakers expanded health care coverage for children with a goal of having virtually all kids covered by the end of 2010. They also expanded the ability of consumers to seek damages by bringing a private cause of action against fraudulent businesses. Iowa currently is the only state without that provision. They also beefed up efforts to prevent dependent adult abuse and strengthen the state’s response when allegations of potential mistreatment arise – action triggered by the Atalissa bunkhouse situation.
LABOR: Lawmakers gave state labor officials and county attorney more tools to prosecute employers who fail to pay employees or violate child labor law. Maximum civil penalties of $10,000 can be levied per child labor violation and child labor criminal penalties were increase from simple misdemeanors to serious misdemeanors. Also, civil penalties were increased from $100 to $500 per pay period for failing to pay an employee’s wages. The time span for collecting jobless benefits was doubled for Iowans laid off due to the economic downturn.
PUBLIC SAFETY: Lawmakers overhauled the state’s sex offender laws, scaling back a law that bans some offenders from living within 2,000 feet of a school or daycare. The bill establishes exclusionary zones around schools and other public areas where sex offenders are prohibited from visiting. Lawmakers also voted to create a statewide electronic database to track sales of pseudoephedrine, an ingredient found in cold medicine that is used to make illegal methamphetamine.
EDUCATION: Majority Democrats protected the commitment to raise teacher pay to the national average by using a share of $386 million in federal stimulus money to fully fund a 4 percent allowable growth for K-12 schools and provide nearly $280 million for salary compensation. Money prospects were less rosy for other educational sectors that face spending cuts due to budget constraints. A couple of perennial issues lawmakers have argued over will be around for a fresh debate next year. The lawmakers again could not agree to increase the compulsory school attendance age from 16 to 17. Neither did they agree to change the start date for schools to prohibit schools from beginning classes before the fourth Monday in August.
AGRICULTURE: Efforts to ban so-called “puppy mills” appeared to have failed until funding for an additional state department of agriculture inspector was included in the catch-all $2.7 billion standings bill. Opponents said the bill would unfairly restrict reputable dog-breeding operations. Lawmakers also moved to restrict the application of liquid manure on snow-covered fields and frozen ground to keep it out of waterways. They also made changes to the grain indemnity fund to address volatility in the ethanol production market.
ENVIRONMENT: Gov. Chet Culver’s bonding plan passed by lawmakers includes $25 million for watershed, water quality and soil conservation projects, as well as flood rebuilding and prevention. Another $55 million would go to sewer infrastructure needs, in an effort to improve Iowa’s water quality. Lawmakers also approved incentives for small wind energy projects and for producers of wind energy components that locate and expand in Iowa.
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: Lawmakers cut spending for the state’s top economic development program, the Iowa Values Fund, by $5 million next fiscal year to $45 million. The bonding plan would spend $12 million for the Community Attraction and Tourism program and other $10 million for river enhancement projects.
UNFINISHED BUSINESS: Procedural hurdles and top Democratic leaders kept lawmakers from considering a constitutional amendment defining marriage as only between one man and one woman. The issue is guaranteed to resurface in the 2010 election-year session given that an Iowa Supreme Court ruling legalizing gay marriage becomes effective next week. Several labor-backed changes that stalled this year are likely to resurface next year as well. Bicyclists likely will push a Senate-passed safety measure that stalled in the House. Likewise for a biodiesel mandate, expanded mental health insurance coverage and vehicle emission standards. Efforts to raise the state gas tax may rekindle next session but more likely in 2011.
David Sirota appeared on CNN to discuss taxes and mops the floor with conservative Ben Ferguson. Sirota points out that a recent Gallup poll shows 60% of Americans believe upper income people pay too little taxes Ferguson is dumbfounded.
I read on Political Wire that Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter is switching his political affiliation to Democrat.
Sen. Arlen Specter will switch his party affiliation from Republican to Democrat and announced today that he will run for re-election in 2010 as a Democrat, according to the Washington Post.
Specter’s decision would give Democrats a 60 seat filibuster proof majority in the Senate assuming Al Franken (D) is eventually sworn in as the next Senator from Minnesota.
Said Specter: “I have decided to run for re-election in 2010 in the Democratic primary. I am ready, willing and anxious to take on all comers and have my candidacy for re-election determined in a general election.”
Specter won’t fall in line with Democrats on every issue, such as the Employee Free Choice act, but gives Democrats a fillibuster proof majority on many issues.
The Des Moines Register published an editorial on Sunday that shows how much must be done to fix our broken health care system…
If someone tells you the United States provides the best health care in the world, they’re not telling the truth.
The truth is this country came in 37th - far from the best - in the most recent World Health Organization ranking.
The organization took a close look at the health systems of nearly 200 countries. It evaluated measures such as spending, longevity, affordability and access to care.
France ranked No. 1. The 35 others that scored better than the United States include Italy, Costa Rica, Israel, Saudi Arabia and Singapore.
The Register then looked at so-called rationing in other countires and concludes that the United States must say that all people have a right to basic health care…
‘Rationing’ may be same as what’s happening here
All of these countries - in fact every country on the planet - spends less than the United States on health care, both per person and as a percentage of gross domestic product. This year, the United States is on track to fork over $2.5 trillion for health care. If that doesn’t sting, consider that in countries that spend less, people enjoy longer lives and better outcomes for some medical conditions. Fewer of their babies die. More of them are immunized.
Critics of other countries’ health systems are quick to point to so-called rationing of care and waiting lists for surgeries. Yes, there are waits for elective surgeries, such as knee replacements and cataract removal. Some health systems won’t pay for certain drugs and treatments. That’s how they try to control costs.
But it’s not clear such limitations are any worse than what exists in the United States. Insurance companies and public-insurance programs such as Medicare and Medicaid don’t cover every drug and service people want. Some Americans wait weeks to get a hip replaced and can’t find psychiatrists for their children. Some veterans can’t get mental-health services. Some seniors hit the doughnut hole in Medicare drug coverage and have to pay the full cost of their drugs before coverage kicks in again.
These are attempts to control costs by limiting access to health care. And the epitome of limiting access is leaving millions of Americans uninsured.
Make this idea our own: Health care is a right
So what do other countries do that we don’t do, and what should we consider borrowing?
The most important approach the United States should adopt is a fundamental premise: All people have a right to basic care. Other developed nations have embraced the principle that health services are a necessity, just like food and housing.
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