Now, more than two weeks later, with the McCain campaign having told reporters that Iowa is already lost, and with its efforts now being focused on PA, VA, NC, IN,…
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Last weekend I attended the Iowa CCI convention where John Nichols was the keynote speaker. Nichols gave a great speech that made all of the Iowans in attendance proud.
His theme was that citizenship requires action, that it is more than just voting a couple times each year. It is Iowan’s responsibility to pursue progressive goals that move the nation forward because Iowans has always been on the frontline of progressive change in the country.
Nichols outlined how Iowa has been leading the nation on the big issues ever since it became a state in 1846 and declared that it was not going to be a slave state. Wisconsin and Minnesota followed suit and this was the beginning of the end of slavery.
He then told the story of Smith Wildman Brookhart (Yes, Wildman was really his middle name.), who ran ran for the United States Senate in 1922 as a Republican with a populist message, saying…
Wall St. is a greater threat to America than any foreign enemy.
Brookhart won a close election and was seated in the Senate until he pissed off party leaders and the election was overturned. He is the only person ever to have the election results overturned after already being seated as a US Senator. Broookhart didn’t give up though. He ran in 1926 against longtime Senator Albert B. Cummins, who was the chair of the Judiciary committee. Brookhart went on to beat Cummins in the Republican primary and went on to win in the general election.
Nichols then talked about Henry Wallace and I shot this video of him talking about Henry Wallace. I used my cell phone to take the video, so the quality isn’t the best, but here it is anyway.
Nichols quoted George McGovern, who had this to say about Henry Wallace…
The only thing Henry Wallace did wrong was believe that America could be as good as Americans were.
Nichols then told how Harold Hughes spoke to end the war in Vietnam and against the strong-armed tatics being used by the Chicago police.
That led up to the 2008 Iowa caucuses. Nichols said that Iowans did what only Iowans can do. We asked the tough questions at the small town cafes and in the end, showed the rest of the nation Barack Obama could win.
Nichols stressed that our duties don’t stop there. We must continue to push ahead on the issues of clean elections, local control of hog confinements, clean water, and worker’s rights. If Iowans do that then the rest of the country will follow.
Lots of folks on both sides of the Obama/Clinton debate predict total chaos in 2012 (if the Democrats lose the election) or 2016. Luckily, 2016 is a ways away, and Democrats are confident about their chances.
But think about it. States will have NO incentive to follow the rules, knowing that at least half their delegations will be seated. The candidates will treat the states like any other state; Remember that Florida, which had half its delegation penalized by the RNC, turned into the victory that essentially sealed the nomination for John McCain.
Nominee-presumptives Obama and Clinton have no incentive to change the calendar — he needs Iowa and she needs New Hampshire for the general election.
Keith Olbermann attempts to explain Hillary Clinton’s definition of which votes counts…
Unfortunately, Iowa doesn’t count because we are a caucus, a small state, next to Illinois, have educated activists that are liberal, we voted Republican in 2004, and we care about both foreign policy and domestic issues.
I posted my report about Obama gaining a national delegate at the 4th District Convention at Daily Kos and it sparked a lot of discussion. The discussion at Kos was if Obama won a delegate in the 4th District or if he ended up losing a delegate overall.
Coming into the convention, Obama had 15 delegates secured with 3 delegates up for grabs. The national media counted the hens before the eggs hatched and wrongly projected that Obama would pick up 17 delegates.
A person who attended the 1st District convention posted their results in the comments section and it looks like the Edwards group was able to become viable and won a national delegate. If the Edwards group wasn’t viable, Obama would have likely won that national delegate.
After check-in, Edwards had 79 delegates but needed 81 to be viable. There were 7 undecideds. If only 2 undecideds went to Edwards, he was going to get a delegate, so the result in the 1st District was not at all unexpected. But the funny (in a sardonic way) thing was that some Clinton delegates went over to Edwards, just to make sure Obama didn’t get that extra delegate.
The 4th District had 507 seats to fill. At first count 425 of the seats were filled with delegates and the first count was Obama 231, Clinton 147, Edwards 42, Uncommitted 5. The remaining seats were filled with alternates. I was one of the alternates that were seated for Obama.
After the alternates were seated the count was Obama 274, Clinton 175, Edwards 52, Uncommitted 6. The number for viability was 76. The Edwards group (and the uncommitteds) weren’t viabile. The national delegate count at this time was Obama 3, Clinton 2, with one delegate up for grabs.
We then broke into preference groups for an hour where both the Clinton and Obama groups could persuade the non-viable groups to come to their side. The Obama group was very well organized, led by Tom Harrington. They had people already selected to go speak to the Edwards group (which had moved to a separate room), while everyone else sat and chatted. I quickly did some math and by figures Clinton could afford to send 6 delegates to Edwards, which wasn’t enough to make Edwards viable even with the 6 uncommitted delegates.
The Clinton group let out a couple cheers as they had swayed a few people to come there way right off the bat. After about 45 minutes, the doors opened and a parade of people from the Edwards group marched in and headed to the Obama group. All of the Obama supporters stood and started a “Fired Up! Ready to go!” chant as the parade of former Edwards supporters joined with the Obama group. It was later announced that the Obama group offered the Edwards group a bunch of seats on the platform committee if they came to Obama’s side.
The final numbers were announced with Obama having 316, Clinton 187, and 2 people stayed uncommitted. This meant during realignment Obama gained 42 and Clinton gained 12 supporters. The final delegate numbers were then Obama 4, Clinton 2, with the alternate going to Obama. Obama, also, won 6 of the 10 seats to the committees for the State Convention.
As part of the deal to get the majority of Edwards supporters to head to Obama’s side, 5 of the 6 seats on the platform committee were from the Edwards group. Edwards supporters were also able to run for national delegate in the Obama group, though none ended up being elected. The Clinton group also went to the Edwards group with an offer, but the majority of the Edwards group favored Obama.
In a Des Moines Register interview, Sen. Tom Harkin said that Hillary Clinton’s statements criticizing the Iowa caucuses would weigh on his decision of whom to endorse. Harkin also referred to Obama strength among independents.
… the candidates’ views on keeping the caucuses in their traditional leadoff position and their performance among independent voters are especially important to him.
Clinton and some of her campaign aides sought to diminish the impact of the caucuses after her close third-place finish in January behind Obama and former Sen. John Edwards.
“Iowa doesn’t have the best track record in determining whom the party nominates,” Clinton said. She also referred to the contests as having “disenfranchised” voters who could not attend.”I was not happy with those statements,” Harkin said. “I happen to think there’s a great value in caucuses for organizing.”
Round 2 of the Iowa Caucuses is taking place today around the state with 99 county convention. Dave Redlawsk explains more…
On caucus night it was estimated that Obama’s 38% of the caucus vote would net him 16 delegates, Clinton’s 29% would net her 15, and Edwards would receive 14 from his 30% caucus support. And these numbers are already included in the counts that currently show Clinton and Obama separated by fewer than 100 delegates.
But here’s the rub. Iowa Democrats will not actually elect any national delegates until our Congressional District Conventions on April 26. At that time 29 of the delegates will be elected, with the remaining 16 elected at the State Convention in June. And those delegates will be elected in proportion to the support each candidate receives at those conventions. How will we know how much support they have? That’s where the county conventions come in.
County Convention Delegates elected at the caucus were elected in support of a candidate (or uncommitted). At the county convention, just like at the caucuses, there will be a “re-alignment” period, where delegates can change their allegiance. Once that process is done, we will count the supporters, and any candidate with less than 15% support at the county convention will be declared non-viable, with those delegates needing to move to a different candidate. When the alignment is over, the viable candidate groups will elect their share of district and state convention delegates.
So who cares? This seems like it is just another part of Iowa’s arcane process, and the battle has moved well beyond us. Normally that would be true, but across Iowa some 30% of all county convention delegates are John Edwards supporters (more than Clinton has by a handful), and those folks may have to make a choice. The choice they make may determine whether Clinton or Obama comes out of Iowa with the bulk of our national delegates – either one could conceivably pick up all 14 of Edwards’ potential delegates. Normally that wouldn’t matter much, but this time around every delegate may make a difference.
Check back laster, as I will be posting throughout the day from my county convention.
Obama’s delegate advantage in caucuses: 129 delegates
The Clinton campaign’s decision to “skip” the caucuses by not matching Obama’s investment in local organizing, may be the biggest political strategy blunder since the ignore-the-swiftboat call.
Idaho. Maine. Texas. Nebraska. These are not obvious “Obama states” yet he grabbed big delegate leads in each of these caucuses.
Why? Because Obama’s campaign embraced bottom-up campaigning. Because it pumped money into local organizers. Because it gave tools to precinct captains and volunteers.
While Obama also ran television advertising and leveraged endorsers, Clinton’s campaign is marked by its top-down messaging and its use of local political machines. Obama perfected bottom-up organizing - and the caucus system rewarded him.
This bottom-up strategy was clearly visible the past two weeks when the campaigns were trying to get their delegates to the county convention that will take place on Saturday. Clinton relied on robocalls, while the Obama campaign set up a website where volunteers could log onto and get a list of people to call.
Just when you thought the nominating calendar couldn’t get any wackier, Marc Ambinder reports this…
Michigan could hold a statewide primary on Jan 15, if a deal reached this morning by top Republicans and Democrats in the state passes muster with state legislators.
Michigan political sources say that Gov. Jennifer Granholm, Sen. Carl Levin are very close to a deal with House Speaker Andy Dillon (D) and Senate Majority Leader Mike Bishop (R). It’s not clear whether the state parties are on board, yet, but if the legislature decides to pass a bill changing the primary date, and then Gov. Granholm signs it, there’s not much dissidents can do.
And what does this do to Iowa? Ambinder writes…
If the political world takes Michigan seriously, Iowa might be forced to look at a December date again (despite Gov. Chet Culver’s protestations to the contrary) because New Hampshire’s Secretary of State would be pressed to set the state’s primary in early January.
I say just set the caucus date in mid December. No other state would jump behind us because of the holidays. New Hampshire could then go in early January and the holidays would prevent states from jumping ahead of them. Candidates would still compete here because they have already invested so much into the state and we keep our relationship in tact with New Hampshire.
