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Democrats need 9 seats to gain a filibuster-proof margin in the Senate and after looking at recent polling it looks possible. Democratic candidates are even polling slightly ahead or within the margin of error in Red States like Alaska, Texas, North Carolina, and Kansas.

In Alaska, two recent polls show Anchorage mayor Mark Begich leading Republican Ted Stevens.

In Texas, two recent polls shows Republian John Cornyn leading Rick Noriega by just 4%.

In North Carolina, two polls released the past few weeks show Republican Elizabeth Dole leading Kay Hagan by only 5%.

In Kansas, Republican Sen. Pat Roberts, whose approval ratings have hovered in the low 50’s for the past 2 years, is in a closer race than expected. Former Rep. Jim Slattery has closed to within 12% in a recent poll.

It is worth noting that in 2006 polls had Jim Webb down by as much as 16 points as late as July against Sen. George Allen.

Last Monday, Chris Bowers took a look at the latest polling of Senate races and things are looking really good for Democrats this year.

Likely Democratic Pick-ups

1. Virginia: Warner (D) 55%–37% Gilmore (R)
2. New Meixco: Tom Udall (D) 54%–40% Pearce (R)
3. New Hampshire: Shaheen (D) 51.5%–41.5% Sununu (R-inc)

Current Toss-ups

1. Colorado: Mark Udall (D) 45.0%–43.5% Schaeffer (R)
2. Alaska: Stevens (R-inc) 46%–45% Begich (D)

Competitive Seats, Republicans Favored

1. Oregon: Smith (R-inc) 45%–42% Merkley (D); Smith 47%–41% Novick (D)
2. North Carolina: Dole (R-inc) 47.7%–44.0% Hagen (D) (see also PPP)
3. Texas: Cornyn (R-inc) 47.5%–43.5% Noriega (D)
4. Minnesota: Coleman (R-inc) 51.0%–42.5% Franken (D) (see also Survey USA)

If you added the race in Kansas to the Competitive seats where Republicans favored and the race in Maine where current polls shows Republican Sen. Susan Collins beating Democratic Rep. Tom Allen 52-42, and you have 11 competitive seats.

In 2006, Democrats won 5 of the 6 competitive seats (with only Harld Ford Jr. losing in Tennessee). If Democrats have similar success in 2008, they could earn a majority of 60 Senators and have a filibuster-proof majority.

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Kos takes a look at what 2008 Senate Races that Republicans might spend there limited money on.

Assuming Kerrey gets in the race, the highest tier becomes New Hampshire, Virginia, Colorado, and Nebraska.

The next level of the top tier is Minnesota, Maine, and Oregon. Alaska too if popular Anchorage’s popular Democratic mayor Begich gets in.

Then there’s the states that will become the second tier — North Carolina, Kentucky, Tennessee, Texas, Idaho, maybe even Kansas.

On the Republican side, they have two real targets — Louisiana and South Dakota. Louisiana, however, isn’t as easy as anything in the Dem’s top tier pickup shots, and South Dakota is tricky given Sen. Johnson’s health issues (and Herseth Sandlin wouldn’t be any easier). They could be stupid and sink millions more into New Jersey again, but alas, they’re probably not that stupid. Or, at very least, they won’t have the money available to be that stupid. What’s left? Montana? Iowa? Arkansas? No way.

It is looking like Democrats should pick up at least 4 or 5 seats in the Senate. I predict Democrats will pick up 7 seats (Virginia, Oregon, New Hampshire, Maine, Minnesota, Nebraska, and Colorado) .

At this point, Harkin is as safe as they come. He has been raising a ton of money and the Republicans have no viable candidate to run.

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Many thought that Jim Nussle would be leaving Iowa for good after his defeat in the Governor’s last November, but it looks like Nussle is keeping his Iowa ties. Nussle plans to open up a consulting firm in Cedar Rapids. From the Cedar Rapids Gazette….

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Chuck Todd put out a list of the Top 10 Most Vulnerable Senate Seats in 2008. Iowa’s Tom Harkin comes in at #8. Here is what Todd had to say about Harkin…Iowa (Democrat Tom Harkin): GOP Rep. Steve King sounds like he wants to run, but the ghosts of …

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Here are some articles about the 2006 election that I found was interesting…Election 2006: The Worst Show on TV by Matt TaibbiThis is a diary Taibbi wrote on election night while watching the results on cable news. Very funny, insightful, and a lit…

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